According to the results of 2018, developers, recognized as bankrupt, could not complete construction of a total of 3.6 million square meters in the Russian Federation. meters of housing, which corresponds to almost half of the volume of new buildings in Moscow, the largest market in the country, writes Kommersant. But this is not the limit, according to the Rating Agency of the Construction Complex (RASK), the portfolio of potential bankrupts reaches 7.8 million square meters. m. Mass care of small and medium-sized developers may begin in the summer, market participants say.
RASK prepared a report for Kommersant, according to which in 2018 there were 150 developers at different stages of bankruptcy across the country, almost 2% more than in 2017. The total area of objects of bankrupt developers amounted to 4.5 million square meters. m, in 2017 - 4.2 million square meters. The Agency took into account only those developers who sell housing in the framework of 214-FZ, which regulates shared construction. The most alarming situation among 111 developers, who in 2018 were declared insolvent: on their balance sheet 3.6 million square meters. m unfinished construction, or 77.8 thousand apartments. This is quite a serious volume: the figure is equivalent to the semi-annual volume of housing commissioning in Moscow or the average monthly figure throughout Russia.
The operation of approximately 60% of the objects that in 2018 were on the balance of the bankrupts was supposed to start after 2020. The officials of the Ministry of Construction have already stated that facilities that are ready for less than 30% (and this includes housing, which is scheduled for commissioning in 2020 and later), have the greatest risk of bankruptcy. "This is the stage that requires the developer the highest costs, despite the fact that sales are still low," explains the director of RASK Nikolai Alekseenko. Other reasons for bankruptcies, he cites delays in the introduction of objects, cash gaps, poor-quality calculation of marketing models and initial errors in the business plan.
According to "Kommersant", another 198 developers turned out to be under threat in 2018 - their creditors announced their intention to file for bankruptcy, stressed in the RASK. These companies are building 7.8 million square meters. meters of housing (861 objects, or 136 thousand apartments). According to the co-chairman of “Business Russia” Andrei Nazarov, by the end of 2019, the market may be short of up to 30% of small and medium developers. The reason will be the tightening of rules for working with interest holders: from July 1, 2019, the developer must transfer the attracted funds to the escrow accounts at authorized banks, they are unfrozen after the facility has been commissioned, while companies can build on shareholders' money and bank loans. This will increase the financial burden on developers, Mr. Nazarov is sure.
Ruslan Arslanov, the sales director of the Granle Group, agrees that those whose financial situation does not allow them to receive bank loans are at risk of bankruptcy. He assumes that developers will also leave the market with projects in unclaimed locations and with poor transport accessibility. As a result, Egor Levchenko, director of the retail real estate department at ILM, is convinced that the new rules will lead to a consolidation of the market.